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Sunday, October 08, 2006
Guess What I Want For Christmas
I was planning to wait until Friday to post this because Friday marks exactly one year since our dossier was logged in, but changed my mind for a few reasons. One is that we won't be home. The reason for that will in a post that will appear soon, possibly later today. The other is because I have been sharing what I learn as I learn it. Why start waiting now? First, a graph from our infamous rumor site.

Let me begin with an explanation of what this chart means. There is a website that began as a blog where people could submit the information they learned to one place. Here one person, known as the Rumor Queen, sorts through all the information and shares it with us. She is able to sort through the rumors and determine if information is coming from one source or if it's coming from several sources. Obviously if it's coming from several sources, it's more likely to be accurate. The site never mentions specific sources or agencies which helps to receive more accurate information. It also helps her determine which sources and/or agencies seem to have the right information the most often.

Another thing she does is crunch the numbers for us. By keeping track of past referrals and using polls on her site, the Rumor Queen gives us some projections. The chart above is the latest projection. The row labels represent the current time. The column labels represent how many days in the referral batch. Over the last 12 batches, the 6 smallest batches averaged 9 days, the 6 largest batches averaged 15 days, and the overall average was 12 days. These numbers are covered in the first three columns. The last three columns represent what could happen if there is the oft rumored increase in referrals.

Have I lost you with my disseration yet? No? Good!

Now, what do all the dates in the middle mean? Those are the dates dossiers were logged in at the CCAA. The CCAA is the office that is responsible for adoption in China. Rumor Queen used the sample log in date of 10/10/05 to illustrate when they might receive their referral. Since our log in date is 10/13, her sample actually works for us with each possibility except the first one. Based on her projections, our earliest possibility of a referral based on past performance would be February and the latest would be May. Obviously, we're really hoping for a speed up, and indications are good there could be one. I wouldn't bet the farm on it, but there is a good possibility. Using her numbers with a speed up in place, our earliest hope for a referral would be December or January. I've been keeping the December (buy a lottery ticket because the odds are about the same) to February as the possibilities. I can't go past February in my head yet.

I don't know if this clarifies what's going on with us or just muddied the water for you. Even though my blog has branched off into my own personal playground, it's original purpose was to keep my family and friends who live far away from me up-to-date with our progress.

Can you guess what I want for Christmas, now? You guessed it, a referral!

P.S. A referral is what we in the China adoption world call the matching process. We are referred a child, hence a referral.


Anonymous Jane said...

Hi, we have an October 12th LID and being honest too, I would LOVE a December referral - wouldn't it be great!!! My reckoning is that January is more likely for us though, but no harm in hoping! Happy 1 year LID tomorrow!

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